Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Whats up, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I will probably be masking Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that value is ready to shut the week at contemporary yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into help turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for greater costs, to be trustworthy – momentum nonetheless seems sturdy and we’ve simply closed via multi-week resistance. Taking a look at subsequent week, I might count on this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there’s more likely to be rather more resistance given the confluence. If we do see value push up into that degree, I will probably be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge once we settle for above that degree. For draw back danger, any wick up above $39.6k in the direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear to be a neighborhood prime to me, from which level we are able to begin on the lookout for shorts probably again so far as $33k to filter all of those latest untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that prime formation within the subsequent week or two beneath $42k. Invalidation on any quick publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear to be a prime has fashioned I might not rush to fade the primary weekly shut via multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the each day, we are able to see how momentum had reset and is now curling greater once more as value has damaged via resistance at $38k and turned it into help on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we are able to maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I might count on value to only maintain pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that will appear to be the $42k degree is getting front-run and I might turn out to be much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction seems like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that value rallied off resistance turned help at $2037 – a degree which value had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, value discovered help at that degree and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This seems very very like the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance degree for ETH, notably once we think about how $2037 additionally acted as very sturdy resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with value solely deviating above that when since Could 2022’s capitulation occasion. This sturdy push off that degree and break of contemporary yearly highs signifies a brand new vary growth, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we are able to flip $2170 into help subsequent week I believe we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a contemporary yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that will look a little bit extra bearish and we may think about {that a} deviation has fashioned. However till that occurs, this seems prepared for a brand new vary.
Taking a look at ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and beneath the 200wMA at 0.0557, however value is ready to shut proper round that resistance degree as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there’s little to do, however once we see value both shut via 0.0533 and switch that help into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into help, then we are able to take a look at the best way to play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former situation, naturally we might look to hedge lengthy publicity or open quick publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in the direction of multi-year trendline resistance, subsequently outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value is discovering help above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally beneath the place the pair is ready to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but exhibiting any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to count on greater costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into help above $64, I believe we see one other leg greater into that vary between $75-82. If, nevertheless, we at any level shut the weekly beneath $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I might count on $48 to be retested beneath because the final degree of help earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into doable in the direction of $36. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we are able to begin pushing via $64 I might count on momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish situation right here subsequent week can be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and a detailed again beneath $61; in that situation, I might search for intraweek shorts in the direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance via that degree, with $48 then the final word goal for that quick. Under $48, you already know what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see how value is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. We’ve got resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place value is at present sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% degree at 0.00208, the place there’s additionally prior help, for my part. So probably 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides approach. If we’re topping out right here, nevertheless, subsequent week ought to see value shut again beneath 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested degree at 0.00112. If we drop into the each day, we are able to see how each day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there’s resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I believe so long as the pair continues to type these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re more likely to see it give approach and switch into reclaimed help; from there, I believe we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there will probably be rather more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located help this previous week, rallying off that degree into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly shocking value didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls needs to see right here is that the pair type a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed help at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that degree weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we type that higher-low in that space. From there, we might count on one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior help, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how value is definitely forming some first rate construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed help at $0.74, with each day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push greater. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other greater low kinds, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, value rallied via the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again beneath that degree and retracing now into reclaimed help at 2000 satoshis; a serious historic degree. If we are able to type a higher-low on this space, construction seems completely wonderful for continuation greater within the coming weeks. Nonetheless, shut again beneath 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi help coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I believe the subsequent leg takes the pair in the direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the each day, we are able to see how value faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing help maintain right here. If we are able to now reclaim 2100 as help, I might count on to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the subsequent leg greater into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we are able to see that value continued to rally greater this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with value set to shut the week marginally beneath that degree. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that degree, there’s zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get crammed in swiftly, notably following a multi-week consolidation beneath resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again beneath it, the image seems a little bit totally different. For now, this very a lot seems prepared for continuation greater, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we are able to see that value is now above reclaimed help at 203, with solely prior help at 219 satoshis performing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we are able to shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I might count on ROSE to push in the direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance via that degree opening up the primary main resistance degree at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the each day, we are able to see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, value has flipped vary resistance at 203 into help and is now holding that degree; shut again inside that and we’re more likely to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I believe we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there’s rather more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at AMP/USD, we are able to see that the pair lately fashioned an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above help at $0.0018, now consolidating beneath prior help turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, notably when taking a look at momentum indicators, weekly construction continues to be bearish and the pair continues to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the intervening time. If we now see a higher-low type above $0.0018 and value then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic degree – then we are able to get thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to observe. If that does happen, I might count on the pair to rally off that $0.003 degree as help quickly in the direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nevertheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and contemporary all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the each day, we are able to see that value is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as help, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 may even give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot greater likelihood, for my part.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having utterly diminished and value now consolidating in a decent vary round all-time lows. If this can be a challenge you’re feeling assured in basically (this can be a reader request, and subsequently I can’t touch upon fundamentals right here), this could be precisely the place I might be seeking to construct a spot place to be trustworthy, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Trying on the each day, we’re tightly wound proper beneath the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very doubtless the cyclical backside has fashioned, so for these with much less danger urge for food, awaiting that will be clever.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Every day:
Value: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s take a look at a challenge I’ve lately purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
Taking a look at UNIBOT/USD, we are able to see the pair has solely been buying and selling for a number of months and value has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having fashioned an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a spread between help at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has endured since mid-September and while value tried a breakout a number of days in the past, this failed and we at the moment are retesting $64 as help; if this degree fails, I might count on $51 to be retested as help, the place these on the sidelines may additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut beneath $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating contemporary highs via $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me immediately at [email protected].